Baseball Prospectus Predictions

Baseball Prospectus just released their 2009 MLB predictions. I'm not going to challenge their predictions per say, but I do have a couple of differences in opinion about how the standings are going to shake out.

Let's start with the AL East. BP has the AL East results going like this: 1 - Yankees, 2 - Red Sox, 3 - Rays, 4 - Blue Jays, 5 - Orioles. I agree with the Red Sox finishing 2nd, Blue Jays finishing 4th and Orioles finishing 5th however, I disagree with the Yankees finishing first and the Rays finishing 3rd. The Yankees had an awesome offseason adding Sabathia, Burnett and Teixiera but they still have some major problems. The biggest problem for the Yankees is a lack of depth. They have a decent bullpen but with a few injuries their bullpen will be weak and they may have to put Chamberlain back in the bullpen. This would weaken their rotation and with an injury or two they suddenly don't have 5 quality starting pitchers. Also, they have an aging offense. Jeter is going to turn 35 and can no longer play at an above-average level anymore, Posada has had injury problems in the past, Matsui had injury problems last season. Another problem is what Robinson Cano is going to show up, the second half sensation or the first half struggler. The last problem is that they have very little depth (besides the outfield). Arod's is already hurt so Cody Ransom will be playing everyday for the first month and that's just assuming that Arod comes back healthy as soon as he's supposed to (which is probably never going to happen).

The Rays however do not have these problems. They are younger, less injury prone. Have a plethora of young starters in the minors ready to step-up to the major leagues (David Price. Jeff Niemannin, at some point Wade Davis). Also, they had a huge pickup this offseason in Pat Burrell which will be a big help to the Ray's. Burrell is a really solid hitter and by playing DH he gets rid of all the questions about whether or not he can still be an everyday player. Defensively he was terrible but he won't have to play there on the Rays. Also, the Rays have a much better defense then the Yankees which could prove to be the difference.

For these reasons I see the AL East as 1 - Rays, 2 - Red Sox, 3 - Yankees, 4 - Blue Jays, 5 - Orioles.